The Lindy Effect states that the longer an idea, book, or business has survived, the longer it is expected to last. Learn how to apply this powerful mental model in investing, business, health, and decision-making to avoid hype and focus on long-term wisdom.
The Lindy Effect states that the longer an idea, book, technology, or institution has survived, the longer it is expected to last. This principle helps in decision-making by favoring time-tested wisdom over recent trends. Instead of assuming that "new is always better," the Lindy Effect encourages you to ask, "Has this stood the test of time?" If something has survived for decades or centuries, it likely has enduring value.
When to use it:
When choosing between short-term trends vs. long-term fundamentals (e.g., investing, learning, health habits).
When evaluating the reliability of advice, books, or strategies.
When making career, business, or technology decisions that require sustainability.
How to apply it:
Identify the choice. → Are you deciding between a new vs. time-tested approach?
Estimate its survival timeline. → Has it lasted for decades or centuries?
Apply Lindy’s principle. → The longer it has lasted, the longer it’s likely to continue.
Prioritize longevity over hype. → Favor robust ideas that have stood the test of time.
Examples:
Investing & Finance
Instead of chasing the latest hot stock, crypto, or speculative trend, focus on businesses with durable competitive advantages that have thrived for decades.
Warren Buffett prefers Coca-Cola over meme stocks because of its proven endurance.
Books & Learning
Instead of reading trendy self-help books that fade in a year, read timeless classics like The Art of War or Poor Charlie’s Almanack that have influenced generations.
Health & Fitness
Instead of following the latest diet fads, stick to basic principles that have worked for centuries—whole foods, regular movement, and adequate sleep.
Career & Business
Instead of chasing the newest industry hype, consider industries that have endured (e.g., energy, finance, food, healthcare) and evolve with them.
Technology & Innovation
Instead of believing that every new startup will disrupt everything, recognize that proven business models adapt and persist (e.g., newspapers shifted online, but content consumption still exists).
Decision-Making & Problem-Solving
Instead of trusting new management theories, consider older mental models (e.g., inversion, first-principles thinking) that have been effective for centuries.
Key Takeaway:
New things can be exciting, but time is the ultimate filter of quality. If something has lasted, it’s more likely to keep working. The Lindy Effect helps you avoid fleeting hype and focus on what endures.
Every choice comes at a cost—what you give up by choosing one option over another. Learn how to use the mental model of opportunity cost to make better financial, career, and life decisions by focusing on what you sacrifice when making a choice.
First Principles Thinking helps you break down complex problems into fundamental truths instead of relying on assumptions. Learn how to apply this mental model in decision-making, problem-solving, and business innovation.
Discover the power of the Inversion Principle—an effective mental model for problem-solving. Learn how thinking in reverse helps identify blind spots, reduce risks, and make better decisions in investing, business, health, and life
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